While conditions are NOT favorable in general to get back into trading anytime soon and the advisory to be in all-cash position for now still holds, it doesn't mean you should not be watching/learning/experimenting to get better understanding of market trends and also study how certain 'out-liers' that defy the general market trend behave (in their chart-patterns).
PS: Except of-course if you are still in the summer vacationing mood, in which case you should continue and enjoy life, as there is absolutely nothing really going on that is worth not-missing!
NOTE: As stated above, due to current overall market conditions, these recommendations are for the expert risk-managers for limited/controlled exposure using a very small portion of the overall fund/asset size.
Stocks in the RADAR for this upcoming week of 9/19/2011:
ULTA buy at > $71.45
EZPW buy at > $34.34
MG buy at > $20.77
AVGO buy at > $37.66 (2nd breakout/entrypoint, if it did, after last week's breakout at $34)
and also from last week's breakouts, still within range:
VPHM still in buy-range (< 19.5)
EVEP < ~76
CHD ~44
Also in the WatchList: (may potentially be ripe in the next few days/weeks!)
CELG
JAZZ
DPZ
MNTA
CERN
CMG
BWLD
GPOR
FOSL
MDRX
Last week's missed-opportunities!
(...but no regrets, given the market condition. This is mostly for the purpose of learning/studying their charts)
WWW
SIMO
CBOE
ARBA
KEX
HANS
NUS
CHD (still in range ~44)
AET
NDN
DG
QSII
HLF
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Good to be still on the sidelines!
You didn't miss a thing!
If you took our advice to 'take a vacation' in August and just got back, like we did, you missed nothing!
While the market gave us a very nice timely Summer-break the last month+ and while the Summer is almost over and we are all falling into the fall, the market is only just done with its FALL. It's yet to recover, pick itself up and start showing some signs of 'climbing up (or down)'. Only the 'charts' will tell!
The last 6+ weeks since our posting to "start gradually pulling out of the market" in early August and since our last posting to fully pull out and 'take a vacation' in mid-August, you missed nothing!
Only one noticeable (good) thing is the heavy selling seem to be over (for now) and the broader market seem to have found a sustainable floor/bottom (for now) and started moving sideways, alternating every 2-4 days of moderately heavy selling/down-days and equally supported buying/up-days. This sideways trend, which may last for weeks/months, is similar to the sideways trend from mid-February 2011 to end-July 2011, only more volatile with very shortlived up/down trends (so far), which is only favorable for day-traders and not for active wealth/fund management like we do.
The below picture clearly demonstrates the big-picture in S&P500 (using the ETF SPY for ease and to show relative volume changes). Clearly, the Feb-July sideways was steady and orderly, which gave about 3 or 4 nice opportunities for trend-based trading that lasted for weeks at a stretch, though nothing like the long bull-market up-trend of March-2009 to March-2010 or the Sept-2010 to Feb-2011.
Why this is a good thing:
Every down-trend and sideways move (consolidation) lends itself for some great chart formation(!) and from that emerges new sector-leaders, new winners, new opportunities. And when overall broader market reves up for a new up-trend, these new leaders emerge with clear first signals.
In our regular feature post later today you will see some of the stocks/sectors showing clear strengh to lead the next up-trend, if and when Mr.Market decides to rally (up, as opposed to further falling down!).
PS: During this correction, we did experiment with some individual stocks that demonstrated resiliance and held stready and ultimately did breakout. Some of the winners/keepers are:
AVGO
AUTH
LQDT
We also experimented with some early-entry opportunities on stocks with micro-breakouts signaling potential up-trend. We will discuss/analyze a few success and failures in the next week's posting.
Some of the picks include:
BSFT
PAY
REDF
UAN
If you took our advice to 'take a vacation' in August and just got back, like we did, you missed nothing!
While the market gave us a very nice timely Summer-break the last month+ and while the Summer is almost over and we are all falling into the fall, the market is only just done with its FALL. It's yet to recover, pick itself up and start showing some signs of 'climbing up (or down)'. Only the 'charts' will tell!
The last 6+ weeks since our posting to "start gradually pulling out of the market" in early August and since our last posting to fully pull out and 'take a vacation' in mid-August, you missed nothing!
Only one noticeable (good) thing is the heavy selling seem to be over (for now) and the broader market seem to have found a sustainable floor/bottom (for now) and started moving sideways, alternating every 2-4 days of moderately heavy selling/down-days and equally supported buying/up-days. This sideways trend, which may last for weeks/months, is similar to the sideways trend from mid-February 2011 to end-July 2011, only more volatile with very shortlived up/down trends (so far), which is only favorable for day-traders and not for active wealth/fund management like we do.
The below picture clearly demonstrates the big-picture in S&P500 (using the ETF SPY for ease and to show relative volume changes). Clearly, the Feb-July sideways was steady and orderly, which gave about 3 or 4 nice opportunities for trend-based trading that lasted for weeks at a stretch, though nothing like the long bull-market up-trend of March-2009 to March-2010 or the Sept-2010 to Feb-2011.
 |
| SPY (S&P-500 ETF) 1Yr (click to enlarge) |
Why this is a good thing:
Every down-trend and sideways move (consolidation) lends itself for some great chart formation(!) and from that emerges new sector-leaders, new winners, new opportunities. And when overall broader market reves up for a new up-trend, these new leaders emerge with clear first signals.
In our regular feature post later today you will see some of the stocks/sectors showing clear strengh to lead the next up-trend, if and when Mr.Market decides to rally (up, as opposed to further falling down!).
PS: During this correction, we did experiment with some individual stocks that demonstrated resiliance and held stready and ultimately did breakout. Some of the winners/keepers are:
AVGO
AUTH
LQDT
We also experimented with some early-entry opportunities on stocks with micro-breakouts signaling potential up-trend. We will discuss/analyze a few success and failures in the next week's posting.
Some of the picks include:
BSFT
PAY
REDF
UAN
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