While conditions are NOT favorable in general to get back into trading anytime soon and the advisory to be in all-cash position for now still holds, it doesn't mean you should not be watching/learning/experimenting to get better understanding of market trends and also study how certain 'out-liers' that defy the general market trend behave (in their chart-patterns).
PS: Except of-course if you are still in the summer vacationing mood, in which case you should continue and enjoy life, as there is absolutely nothing really going on that is worth not-missing!
NOTE: As stated above, due to current overall market conditions, these recommendations are for the expert risk-managers for limited/controlled exposure using a very small portion of the overall fund/asset size.
Stocks in the RADAR for this upcoming week of 9/19/2011:
ULTA buy at > $71.45
EZPW buy at > $34.34
MG buy at > $20.77
AVGO buy at > $37.66 (2nd breakout/entrypoint, if it did, after last week's breakout at $34)
and also from last week's breakouts, still within range:
VPHM still in buy-range (< 19.5)
EVEP < ~76
CHD ~44
Also in the WatchList: (may potentially be ripe in the next few days/weeks!)
CELG
JAZZ
DPZ
MNTA
CERN
CMG
BWLD
GPOR
FOSL
MDRX
Last week's missed-opportunities!
(...but no regrets, given the market condition. This is mostly for the purpose of learning/studying their charts)
WWW
SIMO
CBOE
ARBA
KEX
HANS
NUS
CHD (still in range ~44)
AET
NDN
DG
QSII
HLF
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Good to be still on the sidelines!
You didn't miss a thing!
If you took our advice to 'take a vacation' in August and just got back, like we did, you missed nothing!
While the market gave us a very nice timely Summer-break the last month+ and while the Summer is almost over and we are all falling into the fall, the market is only just done with its FALL. It's yet to recover, pick itself up and start showing some signs of 'climbing up (or down)'. Only the 'charts' will tell!
The last 6+ weeks since our posting to "start gradually pulling out of the market" in early August and since our last posting to fully pull out and 'take a vacation' in mid-August, you missed nothing!
Only one noticeable (good) thing is the heavy selling seem to be over (for now) and the broader market seem to have found a sustainable floor/bottom (for now) and started moving sideways, alternating every 2-4 days of moderately heavy selling/down-days and equally supported buying/up-days. This sideways trend, which may last for weeks/months, is similar to the sideways trend from mid-February 2011 to end-July 2011, only more volatile with very shortlived up/down trends (so far), which is only favorable for day-traders and not for active wealth/fund management like we do.
The below picture clearly demonstrates the big-picture in S&P500 (using the ETF SPY for ease and to show relative volume changes). Clearly, the Feb-July sideways was steady and orderly, which gave about 3 or 4 nice opportunities for trend-based trading that lasted for weeks at a stretch, though nothing like the long bull-market up-trend of March-2009 to March-2010 or the Sept-2010 to Feb-2011.
Why this is a good thing:
Every down-trend and sideways move (consolidation) lends itself for some great chart formation(!) and from that emerges new sector-leaders, new winners, new opportunities. And when overall broader market reves up for a new up-trend, these new leaders emerge with clear first signals.
In our regular feature post later today you will see some of the stocks/sectors showing clear strengh to lead the next up-trend, if and when Mr.Market decides to rally (up, as opposed to further falling down!).
PS: During this correction, we did experiment with some individual stocks that demonstrated resiliance and held stready and ultimately did breakout. Some of the winners/keepers are:
AVGO
AUTH
LQDT
We also experimented with some early-entry opportunities on stocks with micro-breakouts signaling potential up-trend. We will discuss/analyze a few success and failures in the next week's posting.
Some of the picks include:
BSFT
PAY
REDF
UAN
If you took our advice to 'take a vacation' in August and just got back, like we did, you missed nothing!
While the market gave us a very nice timely Summer-break the last month+ and while the Summer is almost over and we are all falling into the fall, the market is only just done with its FALL. It's yet to recover, pick itself up and start showing some signs of 'climbing up (or down)'. Only the 'charts' will tell!
The last 6+ weeks since our posting to "start gradually pulling out of the market" in early August and since our last posting to fully pull out and 'take a vacation' in mid-August, you missed nothing!
Only one noticeable (good) thing is the heavy selling seem to be over (for now) and the broader market seem to have found a sustainable floor/bottom (for now) and started moving sideways, alternating every 2-4 days of moderately heavy selling/down-days and equally supported buying/up-days. This sideways trend, which may last for weeks/months, is similar to the sideways trend from mid-February 2011 to end-July 2011, only more volatile with very shortlived up/down trends (so far), which is only favorable for day-traders and not for active wealth/fund management like we do.
The below picture clearly demonstrates the big-picture in S&P500 (using the ETF SPY for ease and to show relative volume changes). Clearly, the Feb-July sideways was steady and orderly, which gave about 3 or 4 nice opportunities for trend-based trading that lasted for weeks at a stretch, though nothing like the long bull-market up-trend of March-2009 to March-2010 or the Sept-2010 to Feb-2011.
 |
| SPY (S&P-500 ETF) 1Yr (click to enlarge) |
Why this is a good thing:
Every down-trend and sideways move (consolidation) lends itself for some great chart formation(!) and from that emerges new sector-leaders, new winners, new opportunities. And when overall broader market reves up for a new up-trend, these new leaders emerge with clear first signals.
In our regular feature post later today you will see some of the stocks/sectors showing clear strengh to lead the next up-trend, if and when Mr.Market decides to rally (up, as opposed to further falling down!).
PS: During this correction, we did experiment with some individual stocks that demonstrated resiliance and held stready and ultimately did breakout. Some of the winners/keepers are:
AVGO
AUTH
LQDT
We also experimented with some early-entry opportunities on stocks with micro-breakouts signaling potential up-trend. We will discuss/analyze a few success and failures in the next week's posting.
Some of the picks include:
BSFT
PAY
REDF
UAN
Monday, August 15, 2011
In the RADAR - Week of 2011-08-15
Stocks in the RADAR for this upcoming week of 8/15/2011:
BSFT buy at ~ $30
QCOR buy at > $32.22 (again!)
ATHN buy at > $54.90 (again!)
MLI buy at > $41.00
IDCC buy at ~ $75
APEI buy at > $43.43
DLTR buy at ~ $66.5x [Caution: Earnings this week!]
Also in the WatchList: (may potentially be ripe in the next few days/weeks!)
IBM
JBHT
AAP
NTES
GA
SOHU
APOL
THOR
Sector/Industry Watch: (Sectors/Industry potentially on the rise or staging a comeback!)
For-Profit Education & Training Services
Restaurant Industry
Healthcare (Biotech)
Last week's missed-opportunities!
(though within our Watchlist, escaped our watchful eyes or broke-out sooner than we anticipated!)
None!
-Blog-posting by email
Sunday, August 14, 2011
This is an ideal time for ....
....Taking that perfect summer vacation, while you still have a few weeks of summer (time off) left! [Assuming you are now safely on mostly CA$H or quite comfortably on not so volatile vehicles].
Doesn't necessarily mean one should completely stay away from keeping an eye on certain stocks that are holding-up well or even monitoring/scanning of certain sectors/stocks potentially building-up to a possible breakout in the next 4 - 8 weeks. (Follow our WatchList in our weekly 'In the Radar' posts as usual).
Why not to trade in this market?
You can answer this yourself by answering these simple questions.
Q1. Given that you can neither control nor predict the direction of the Market (which is always true not only now but at anytime), the only way an active-trader/fund-manager can make money (long) is by increasing your 'odds of winning' in any and every little way possible. Now, do you prefer to trade in a Market condition where your 'odds of winning' are: a) Less than 50%? b) About 50%? c) Greater than 50%?
If your asnwer is a) and/or b), then you may continue trading right-away! We prefer to stick with c).
Q2: Best use of your Capital, Time & Energy. Is it necessary that your Capital to start/continue to grow by leaps and bouds this Month? Or can it wait for a 'different' opportunity in a few weeks? (There is no such thing called lost opportunity, with over thousands of stocks to choose from hunders of sectors/industries, there are always stocks/sectors breakingout and starting new up-trends). So is it worth your energy/time to be swimming against the stream instead of a summer-vacation?
Upcoming posts:
In the next few days/weeks, we will start posting more educational posts and case-studies of some of the interesting strategies, lessons-learnt, winners/loosers, etc, from the trades in our portfolio in the past couple of months.
.......Have a nice (rest of the) Summer......
-from the trading desk of,
Humble Buddha Financial Services®
Doesn't necessarily mean one should completely stay away from keeping an eye on certain stocks that are holding-up well or even monitoring/scanning of certain sectors/stocks potentially building-up to a possible breakout in the next 4 - 8 weeks. (Follow our WatchList in our weekly 'In the Radar' posts as usual).
Why not to trade in this market?
You can answer this yourself by answering these simple questions.
Q1. Given that you can neither control nor predict the direction of the Market (which is always true not only now but at anytime), the only way an active-trader/fund-manager can make money (long) is by increasing your 'odds of winning' in any and every little way possible. Now, do you prefer to trade in a Market condition where your 'odds of winning' are: a) Less than 50%? b) About 50%? c) Greater than 50%?
If your asnwer is a) and/or b), then you may continue trading right-away! We prefer to stick with c).
Q2: Best use of your Capital, Time & Energy. Is it necessary that your Capital to start/continue to grow by leaps and bouds this Month? Or can it wait for a 'different' opportunity in a few weeks? (There is no such thing called lost opportunity, with over thousands of stocks to choose from hunders of sectors/industries, there are always stocks/sectors breakingout and starting new up-trends). So is it worth your energy/time to be swimming against the stream instead of a summer-vacation?
Upcoming posts:
In the next few days/weeks, we will start posting more educational posts and case-studies of some of the interesting strategies, lessons-learnt, winners/loosers, etc, from the trades in our portfolio in the past couple of months.
.......Have a nice (rest of the) Summer......
-from the trading desk of,
Humble Buddha Financial Services®
Sunday, August 7, 2011
In the RADAR - Week of 2011-08-08
Stocks in the RADAR for this upcoming week of 8/8/2011:
All of the broader market indicators have broken below their 200day-SMA and trending down.
The best strategy is to sit on CASH!
Conservative allocation:
80% : CASH
20% : Safe heaven/diffensive vehicles like GOLD, FXF, TFI, etc.
Moderately aggressive:
70% : CASH
10% : Safe heaven/diffensive vehicles like GOLD, FXF, TFI, etc.
20% : Vehicles for shorting the market/indexes like SH, PSQ, DOG, RWM, etc.
Aggressive:
50% : CASH
10% : Safe heaven/diffensive vehicles like GOLD, FXF, TFI, etc.
20% : Vehicles for shorting the market/indexes like SH, PSQ, DOG, RWM, etc.
20% : Any of the above category of stocks/ETFs ideally holding-up and/or Breaking out (including select leveraged ETFs).
(See some of the listings below, although, *leveraged ETFs are NOT advisible for inexperienced and without proper tracking and exit strategy).
The WatchList: (may potentially be ripe in the next few days/weeks!)
FXF
GOLD
THR
UN
SH
PSQ
DOG
RWM
SEF
BGZ*
DRV*
EDZ*
FAZ*
SDS*
SPXU*
SRTY*
THR*
TVIX*
TZA*
*: leveraged ETFs
GOLD
THR
UN
SH
PSQ
DOG
RWM
SEF
BGZ*
DRV*
EDZ*
FAZ*
SDS*
SPXU*
SRTY*
THR*
TVIX*
TZA*
*: leveraged ETFs
Last week's missed-opportunities!(though within our Watchlist, escaped our watchful eyes or broke-out sooner than we anticipated!)
None!
-Blog-posting by email
Sunday, July 24, 2011
In the RADAR - Week of 2011-07-25
Stocks in the RADAR for this upcoming week of 7/25/2011:
PSTR buy at ~ $6.30CLR buy at > 42.20
EDR buy at ~ 9.20
CROX buy at ~ $28+
DPZ buy at > 26.26 [Caution: Earnings this week!]
and from last week's missed breakouts:
XRAY still in buy-range (~39.6x)
CROX still in buy-range (~ 28.3x) [Caution: Earnings this week!]
Also in the WatchList: (may potentially be ripe in the next few days/weeks!)
CROX still in buy-range (~ 28.3x) [Caution: Earnings this week!]
Also in the WatchList: (may potentially be ripe in the next few days/weeks!)
ST
GCO
WTW
NTES
SRCL
LTD (repeat pick for this month)
ARMH [Caution: Earnings this week!]
MIPS
AN [Caution: Earnings this week!]
FMX
CMC
REE
MCP
MLI
WPZ
WPI
DKS
ENB
WPZ
WPI
DKS
ENB
[NEW] Sector/Industry Watch: (Sectors/Industry potentially on the rise or staging a comeback!)
Oil & Gas related industry(ies)
Restaurant Industry
Mining (Industrial Metals and Minerals)
Last week's missed-opportunities!
(though within our Watchlist, escaped our watchful eyes or broke-out sooner than we anticipated!)
EFII
CHSI
-Blog-posting by email
Sunday, July 17, 2011
In the RADAR - Week of 2011-07-18
Stocks in the RADAR for this upcoming week of 7/11/2011:
ATHN buy at > $47
CSR buy at > $5.4
JWN buy at > 50.65
SHOO buy at ~ $40.90
CSR buy at > $5.4
JWN buy at > 50.65
SHOO buy at ~ $40.90
GIS buy at > 37.85 [Note: Early entry; Stage-1]
and from last week:
MGIC still in buy-range (< 6.4)
Also in the WatchList: (may potentially be ripe in the next few days/weeks!)
DRI
DV
THORAN
ATLS
TZOODSW
LTDLINC
G
OWW
OKE
ICON
NPO
ESIOTRLG
ITC
AIR
FMX
LCAPAIBM
EPB
Last week's missed-opportunities!
(though within our Watchlist, escaped our watchful eyes or broke-out sooner than we anticipated!)
ICGN (big-time!)
VRX
-Blog-posting by email
Sunday, July 10, 2011
In the Radar - Week of 07/11/11
Stocks in the RADAR for this upcoming week of 7/11/2011:
(Too few good buys!)
EGOV buy at > $13.81
XRIT buy at > $5.03
AVEO buy at > 21.00
BIIB buy at ~ $109.4x
and from last week:
ACOM still in buy-range (41 - 42.5x)
Also in the WatchList: (may potentially be ripe in the next few days/weeks!)
CASY
MGIC
ROVI
OCZ
FSLR
CBST
ICGN
CHSI
TITN
TZOO
Last week's missed-opportunities!
(though within our Watchlist, escaped our watchful eyes or broke-out sooner than we anticipated!)
GENE
DYN
QLIK
PCYC
PSTI
MHLD
AGCO
AMLN
(Too few good buys!)
EGOV buy at > $13.81
XRIT buy at > $5.03
AVEO buy at > 21.00
BIIB buy at ~ $109.4x
and from last week:
ACOM still in buy-range (41 - 42.5x)
Also in the WatchList: (may potentially be ripe in the next few days/weeks!)
CASY
MGIC
ROVI
OCZ
FSLR
CBST
ICGN
CHSI
TITN
TZOO
Last week's missed-opportunities!
(though within our Watchlist, escaped our watchful eyes or broke-out sooner than we anticipated!)
GENE
DYN
QLIK
PCYC
PSTI
MHLD
AGCO
AMLN
Saturday, July 9, 2011
In the Radar - Week of 07/04/11
PS: Moved here from the "RADAR" page (on 07/09/2011):
Stocks in the RADAR for this upcoming week of 7/4/2011:
TNAV buy at > $8.6
ACOR buy at > $33.20
ACHN buy at > $7.70
MSG buy at ~ $28.00
ACOM buy at > $42.25
SIRO buy at ~ $55.00
XPO buy at ~ $3.40
Also in the WatchList:
PPH (An ETF)
SIFY
XRAY
SPRD
GENE
WTW
FNGN
This week's missed-opportunities!
CHUX
DGSE
ZIXI
BWLD
HNSN
STEI
Stocks in the RADAR for this upcoming week of 7/4/2011:
TNAV buy at > $8.6
ACOR buy at > $33.20
ACHN buy at > $7.70
MSG buy at ~ $28.00
ACOM buy at > $42.25
SIRO buy at ~ $55.00
XPO buy at ~ $3.40
Also in the WatchList:
PPH (An ETF)
SIFY
XRAY
SPRD
GENE
WTW
FNGN
This week's missed-opportunities!
CHUX
DGSE
ZIXI
BWLD
HNSN
STEI
Let the Blogging Begin!
Just as with our "Keep it Simple & Stress free" Investment Strategy, we will keep our Blog format to a plain, simple, consistent pattern/routine.
Simple Weekly Posts, always with the title of:
In the Rear-view Mirror: Occasionally we may have a follow-up-post to analyze any interesting aspects of the previous week(s), typically success/failures in past trades, lessons learned, interesting observations, etc.
Occasionally (bi-weekly) there will be a featured post on any interesting topics related to our Investrment Strategy/Techniques/System, which may include an in-depth analysis of a trade or stock or market events.
So, ..... Let the Blogging Begin!!!!! Enjoy reading, learning, investing and profiting!
-from the trading desk of
Humble Buddha Financial Services®
PS: A quick tip: Get the blog posts directly to your Inbox as soon as they are posted (see top-right box titled: Follow Blog posts by eMail).
*Almost-intant tweets: StockTwits are tweeted manually(!) and are only available for some of our Manual-trades. Majority of our trades are Auto/STOP orders (stop-buy/stop-sell), usually setup days/weeks ahead of time!
Simple Weekly Posts, always with the title of:
- In the Radar - Week of mm/dd/yy (regular)
- In the Rear-view Mirror - Week of mm/dd/yy (optional/occasional)
In the Rear-view Mirror: Occasionally we may have a follow-up-post to analyze any interesting aspects of the previous week(s), typically success/failures in past trades, lessons learned, interesting observations, etc.
Occasionally (bi-weekly) there will be a featured post on any interesting topics related to our Investrment Strategy/Techniques/System, which may include an in-depth analysis of a trade or stock or market events.
So, ..... Let the Blogging Begin!!!!! Enjoy reading, learning, investing and profiting!
-from the trading desk of
Humble Buddha Financial Services®
PS: A quick tip: Get the blog posts directly to your Inbox as soon as they are posted (see top-right box titled: Follow Blog posts by eMail).
*Almost-intant tweets: StockTwits are tweeted manually(!) and are only available for some of our Manual-trades. Majority of our trades are Auto/STOP orders (stop-buy/stop-sell), usually setup days/weeks ahead of time!
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Today is the first day of the rest of your life!
Today is the first day of the rest of your life. Take control of your life; Get on the driver's seat of your life and stear it to where you want to go.
Today is the first day of this Blogsite!
The goal of this blog is to learn, share, educate and enlighten ourselves and the readers on Personal Finance Management. To start with, for now, this blog will focus on "Investing in the Stock Market" (while we are at it!).
The Humble Buddha Investment Blog Mission Statement(s):
The Goal: Easily/Handily achieve a performance rate much better than all major benchmark indices and most of the typical Index Tracking Managed Funds (in our retirement accounts for example).
The Mantra: Conquer Fear & Greed with simple, peaceful and yet powerful investment strategy/style/system with a descipline of a Buddha!
The Edge: Sleep well at night without worrying (about the Market ups/downs) while our money is hard at work!
The Formula: F(x)=Σ{f(Wealth Preservation) + [f(Risk-Management) * f(Market Dynamics) ]^∮(Market Trends ~ Market Timing) + Kø}
Other Purposes (of this Blog): This blog also serves as an archive for Tracking
Official site launch: 1st July, 2011, the beginning of 2011-Q3 (3rd Quarter) or 2011-H2 (2nd Half).
....Stay tuned.....
-from the trading desk of
Humble Buddha Financial Services®
Today is the first day of this Blogsite!
The goal of this blog is to learn, share, educate and enlighten ourselves and the readers on Personal Finance Management. To start with, for now, this blog will focus on "Investing in the Stock Market" (while we are at it!).
The Humble Buddha Investment Blog Mission Statement(s):
The Goal: Easily/Handily achieve a performance rate much better than all major benchmark indices and most of the typical Index Tracking Managed Funds (in our retirement accounts for example).
The Mantra: Conquer Fear & Greed with simple, peaceful and yet powerful investment strategy/style/system with a descipline of a Buddha!
The Edge: Sleep well at night without worrying (about the Market ups/downs) while our money is hard at work!
The Formula: F(x)=Σ{f(Wealth Preservation) + [f(Risk-Management) * f(Market Dynamics) ]^∮(Market Trends ~ Market Timing) + Kø}
Other Purposes (of this Blog): This blog also serves as an archive for Tracking
- The evolution/perfecting of the strategy/methodology
- The performance of the Investments over its period, to establish a track-record for future reference.
Official site launch: 1st July, 2011, the beginning of 2011-Q3 (3rd Quarter) or 2011-H2 (2nd Half).
....Stay tuned.....
-from the trading desk of
Humble Buddha Financial Services®
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